A Framework for Assessing the Impact of Outbreak Response Immunization Programs.

The impact of outbreak response immunization (ORI) can be estimated by comparing observed outcomes to modelled counterfactual scenarios without ORI, but the most appropriate metrics depend on stakeholder needs and data availability. This study developed a framework for using mathematical models to assess the impact of ORI for vaccine-preventable diseases. Framework development involved (1) the assessment of impact metrics based on stakeholder interviews and literature reviews determining data availability and capacity to capture as model outcomes; (2) mapping investment in ORI elements to model parameters to define scenarios; (3) developing a system for engaging stakeholders and formulating model questions, performing analyses, and interpreting results; and (4) example applications for different settings and pathogens. The metrics identified as most useful were health impacts, economic impacts, and the risk of severe outbreaks. Scenario categories included investment in the response scale, response speed, and vaccine targeting. The framework defines four phases: (1) problem framing and data sourcing (identification of stakeholder needs, metrics, and scenarios); (2) model choice; (3) model implementation; and (4) interpretation and communication. The use of the framework is demonstrated by application to two outbreaks, measles in Papua New Guinea and Ebola in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. The framework is a systematic way to engage with stakeholders and ensure that an analysis is fit for purpose, makes the best use of available data, and uses suitable modelling methodology.

Psychological and attentional outcomes following acute mindfulness induction among high anxiety individuals: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Training outcomes of mindfulness interventions for anxiety have been extensively researched. Less is known about the acute effects of mindfulness induction and associated mechanisms. This systematic review aimed to identify 1) the effect of mindfulness induction on pre-post measures of state anxiety and attention among adults experiencing high levels of anxiety; and 2) the impact of predictors, mediators and moderators on post-induction changes in anxiety and attention. State distress and mindfulness were included as secondary outcomes. METHODS: A systematic search was conducted in November 2021 in electronic databases using relevant search terms. Five studies (four randomised controlled trials and one non-randomised controlled trial) were included, comprising a total of 277 participants with elevated trait/generalised anxiety. Each study used a brief audio-based mindfulness induction exercise. RESULTS: The meta-analysis indicated mindfulness induction had medium and large effects on state anxiety (k = 3, n = 100, g = -0.60, 95%CI [-1.04, -0.16]; p = .008) and state mindfulness (k = 2, n = 110, g = 0.91, 95%CI [0.52, 1.30], p < .001), respectively, when compared with non-therapeutic control conditions. Furthermore, two studies showed small and moderate effects of mindfulness on state anxiety when compared to therapeutic active controls, but were not pooled in a meta-analysis. While results could not be pooled for attention, there was limited evidence of behavioural improvements on tasks measuring aspects of attention following mindfulness induction. However, one study found an increase in Low Beta to High Beta ratio and a reduction in Beta activity in the Anterior Cingulate Cortex following mindfulness induction. Moreover, another study found aspects of state mindfulness mediated reductions in state anxiety. LIMITATIONS: A small number of studies were included in the review, with high risk of bias and low certainty of evidence present. CONCLUSION: The findings support the use of mindfulness induction to reduce state anxiety in anxious individuals but suggest gains in state mindfulness may be a more realistic expected outcome. Further controlled trials are needed to delineate the relative effects of objectively assessed anxiety outcomes from mindfulness induction in clinically defined samples.

The effect of selenium supplementation in pregnant women on maternal, fetal, and newborn outcomes: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

OBJECTIVE: Low maternal selenium status has been associated with poor pregnancy outcomes, including preterm birth. This study aimed to evaluate available evidence of the effects of selenium supplementation during pregnancy on preterm birth and related maternal, fetal, and newborn outcomes. DATA SOURCES: MEDLINE, Embase, CINAHL, Global Index Medicus, and the Cochrane Library were systematically searched on June 23, 2022, without language or time restrictions. STUDY ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA: Randomized controlled trials and nonrandomized interventional studies were included if they compared the effects of selenium supplementation with placebo or no treatment among pregnant women. The review protocol was registered in the International Prospective Register of Systematic Reviews (identification number: CRD42022383669). METHODS: For outcomes reported by ≥1 study, a meta-analysis was conducted. Because of the small number of studies and high clinical heterogeneity between populations, random-effects models were used. The Risk of Bias 2 and Risk Of Bias In Non-randomized Studies - of Interventions tools were used to assess study quality, and Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development, and Evaluation analysis was used to determine the certainty of evidence for each outcome. RESULTS: Literature searches identified 5105 unique records, and 32 studies met the eligibility criteria. Of note, 11 reports were not included for analysis following research integrity assessments. Moreover, 10 trials and 3 observational studies met the inclusion criteria; however, only 8 trials (1851 women) and 1 prospective cohort study (71,728 women) reported on at least 1 review outcome. Our results could not determine the effect of selenium supplementation on preterm birth at <37 weeks of gestation (relative risk, 0.65; 95% confidence interval, 0.26-1.63; very low certainty evidence) and <34 weeks of gestation (relative risk, 1.05; 95% confidence interval, 0.59-1.44; very low certainty evidence). CONCLUSION: There is limited evidence on the effects of selenium supplementation during pregnancy. Further trials, with larger sample sizes, more representative populations, and reliable assessment of maternal selenium status at trial entry, are required.

Psychological Outcomes and Mechanisms of Mindfulness-Based Training for Generalised Anxiety Disorder: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

This systematic review aimed to identify 1) the effect of mindfulness training on pre-post measures of anxiety and attention among adults experiencing high levels of generalised anxiety; and 2) the impact of predictors, mediators and moderators on post-intervention changes in anxiety or attention. Trait mindfulness and distress measures were included as secondary outcomes. A systematic search was conducted in November 2021 in electronic databases using relevant search terms. Eight articles comprising four independent studies were included (N = 334). All studies included participants diagnosed with generalised anxiety disorder (GAD) who participated in an 8-week manualised program. The meta-analysis indicated that mindfulness training had a large effect on anxiety symptoms (g = -1.92, 95%CI[-3.44, -0.40]) when compared to inactive (i.e., care as usual, waitlist) or non-specified (i.e., condition not defined) controls. However, a significant effect was not found when compared to active controls. Effects for depression, worry and trait mindfulness did not reach statistical significance, despite small-large effect sizes favouring mindfulness compared to inactive/non-specified controls. Our narrative review found evidence that changes in aspects of trait mindfulness mediate anxiety reduction following mindfulness training. However, a small number of studies were available for inclusion in the review, with high risk of bias and low certainty of evidence present. Overall, the findings support the use of mindfulness training programs for GAD and indicate mechanisms that may differ from those involved in other cognitive therapy approaches. Further RCTs with evidence-based controls are needed to clarify techniques most beneficial for generalised anxiety to support individually tailored treatment. Supplementary Information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s12144-023-04695-x.

Association of parameter, software, and hardware variation with large-scale behavior across 57,000 climate models.

In complex spatial models, as used to predict the climate response to greenhouse gas emissions, parameter variation within plausible bounds has major effects on model behavior of interest. Here, we present an unprecedentedly large ensemble of >57,000 climate model runs in which 10 parameters, initial conditions, hardware, and software used to run the model all have been varied. We relate information about the model runs to large-scale model behavior (equilibrium sensitivity of global mean temperature to a doubling of carbon dioxide). We demonstrate that effects of parameter, hardware, and software variation are detectable, complex, and interacting. However, we find most of the effects of parameter variation are caused by a small subset of parameters. Notably, the entrainment coefficient in clouds is associated with 30% of the variation seen in climate sensitivity, although both low and high values can give high climate sensitivity. We demonstrate that the effect of hardware and software is small relative to the effect of parameter variation and, over the wide range of systems tested, may be treated as equivalent to that caused by changes in initial conditions. We discuss the significance of these results in relation to the design and interpretation of climate modeling experiments and large-scale modeling more generally.